The timeline for advances in a year is pretty fast, but on the other hand, it’s not clear that we actually need all of the advances you describe.
It continually baffles me that people can look at LLMs which have 140 equivalent IQ relative to most questions and say “but surely there’s no way to use that intelligence to make it agentic or to make it teach itself...”
1 year is indeed aggressive, in my median reality I expect things slightly slower (3 years for all these things?). I’m unsure if lacking several of the advances I describe still allows this to happen, but in any case the main crux for me is “what does it take to speed up ML development by X times, at which point 20-year human-engineered timelines become 20/X-year timelines.
Excellent story.
The timeline for advances in a year is pretty fast, but on the other hand, it’s not clear that we actually need all of the advances you describe.
It continually baffles me that people can look at LLMs which have 140 equivalent IQ relative to most questions and say “but surely there’s no way to use that intelligence to make it agentic or to make it teach itself...”
1 year is indeed aggressive, in my median reality I expect things slightly slower (3 years for all these things?). I’m unsure if lacking several of the advances I describe still allows this to happen, but in any case the main crux for me is “what does it take to speed up ML development by X times, at which point 20-year human-engineered timelines become 20/X-year timelines.