If I understand correctly, your argument is: (1) People in lots of fields believe employment in that field is in decline. (2) It seems improbable that these fields all just happen to be the ones with the worst prospects. (3) Therefore, many of these people are probably wrong.
But I don’t see how you get to #3, unless you take these people to mean that their fields are in decline relative to other fields. Surely it’s perfectly possible that all fields, or at least a large fraction, are in decline in absolute terms. Economic growth has been bobbling along somewhere between “negative” and “positive but very small” for the last few years, and arguably for more if you take the pessimistic view that much of the apparent growth has been from a series of bubbles, the fall from each being cushioned by the growth of the next, which can’t be sustained.
Since you’re trying to choose a career, then of course relative job prospects are what you mostly want to know about. Fair enough. But all those people complaining that their field is in decline might not have meant that.
I thought about that but then I noticed that forum posts from before 2008 were also pessimistic. “Now” always seems to be the worst time to break into a job market.
If I understand correctly, your argument is: (1) People in lots of fields believe employment in that field is in decline. (2) It seems improbable that these fields all just happen to be the ones with the worst prospects. (3) Therefore, many of these people are probably wrong.
But I don’t see how you get to #3, unless you take these people to mean that their fields are in decline relative to other fields. Surely it’s perfectly possible that all fields, or at least a large fraction, are in decline in absolute terms. Economic growth has been bobbling along somewhere between “negative” and “positive but very small” for the last few years, and arguably for more if you take the pessimistic view that much of the apparent growth has been from a series of bubbles, the fall from each being cushioned by the growth of the next, which can’t be sustained.
Since you’re trying to choose a career, then of course relative job prospects are what you mostly want to know about. Fair enough. But all those people complaining that their field is in decline might not have meant that.
I thought about that but then I noticed that forum posts from before 2008 were also pessimistic. “Now” always seems to be the worst time to break into a job market.