The problem is that I don’t know enough about Magical Britain’s culture and customs to make a good estimate. There’s so much weird stuff going on there that there’s not much that would surprise me.
You are correct that taken completely out of context like that, they sound like service vows. And I’m biased because I want them to be marriage vows; after reading your posts I’ve updated in favor of service vows.
I don’t think P(marriage) > 50%. But you’re offering me 10 against 1, and I am sure P(marriage) > 1⁄11. So I accept your bet. I’ll put up $30 against your $300, to be judged either by an unambiguous statement in a future chapter of MoR, or by a comment on LW by Eliezer.
ll put up $30 against your $300, to be judged either by an unambiguous statement in a future chapter of MoR, or by a comment on LW by Eliezer.
It’s a deal on my part—but I’ll also understand/forgive/excuse you if you don’t pay up, because I think Eliezer has effectively already confirmed my position in a comment, before I got to say “Deal”.
It was posted after I said “I accept your bet,” so I am honor-bound to pay up. But if you feel bad taking the money I can always donate to SIAI instead.
Yeah that was the comment I was talking about, and nah, I am okay with taking the money, if you also consider it fair enough. I’ll PM you paypal detail. If paypal is not convenient for you, we’ll figure some other way.
The problem is that I don’t know enough about Magical Britain’s culture and customs to make a good estimate. There’s so much weird stuff going on there that there’s not much that would surprise me.
You are correct that taken completely out of context like that, they sound like service vows. And I’m biased because I want them to be marriage vows; after reading your posts I’ve updated in favor of service vows.
I don’t think P(marriage) > 50%. But you’re offering me 10 against 1, and I am sure P(marriage) > 1⁄11. So I accept your bet. I’ll put up $30 against your $300, to be judged either by an unambiguous statement in a future chapter of MoR, or by a comment on LW by Eliezer.
It’s a deal on my part—but I’ll also understand/forgive/excuse you if you don’t pay up, because I think Eliezer has effectively already confirmed my position in a comment, before I got to say “Deal”.
This one?
It was posted after I said “I accept your bet,” so I am honor-bound to pay up. But if you feel bad taking the money I can always donate to SIAI instead.
Yeah that was the comment I was talking about, and nah, I am okay with taking the money, if you also consider it fair enough. I’ll PM you paypal detail. If paypal is not convenient for you, we’ll figure some other way.
Sent via paypal.
Someone make more bets with me so I can come out ahead ;)
When you do that you are robbing Blueberry of a valuable and inexpensive learning experience.