Strictly relating to pre-singularity AI, everything after that is a different paradigm.
The strongest economic trend I’m aware of is growing inequality.
AI would seem to be an accelerant of this trend, i.e. I think most AI returns are captured by capital, not labour. (AIs are best modelled as slaves in this context).
And inequality would seem to be demand destroying—there are less consumers, most consumers are poorer.
Thus my near term (pre-singularity) expectations are something like—massive runaway financialization; divergence between paper economy (roughly claims on resources) and real economy (roughly resources). And yes we have something like a gilded age where a very small section of the planet lives very well until singularity and then we find out if humanity graduates to the next round.
But like, fundamentally this isn’t a picture of runaway economic growth—which is what everyone else talking about this seems to be describing.
Would appreciate clarity/correction/insight here.
Increasing inequality has been a thing here in the US for a few decades now, but it’s not universal, and it’s not an inevitable consequence of economic growth. Moreover, it does not (in the US) consist of poor people getting poorer and rich people getting richer. It consists of poor people staying poor, or only getting a bit richer, while rich people get a whole lot richer. Thus, it is not demand destroying.
One could imagine this continuing with the advent of AI, or of everyone ending up equally dead, or many other outcomes.
In the rate-limiting resource, housing, the poor have indeed gotten poorer. Treating USD as a wealth primitive [ not to mention treating “demand” as a game-theoretic primitive ] is an economist-brained error.
Not an economist; have a confusion.
Strictly relating to pre-singularity AI, everything after that is a different paradigm.
The strongest economic trend I’m aware of is growing inequality.
AI would seem to be an accelerant of this trend, i.e. I think most AI returns are captured by capital, not labour. (AIs are best modelled as slaves in this context).
And inequality would seem to be demand destroying—there are less consumers, most consumers are poorer.
Thus my near term (pre-singularity) expectations are something like—massive runaway financialization; divergence between paper economy (roughly claims on resources) and real economy (roughly resources). And yes we have something like a gilded age where a very small section of the planet lives very well until singularity and then we find out if humanity graduates to the next round.
But like, fundamentally this isn’t a picture of runaway economic growth—which is what everyone else talking about this seems to be describing.
Would appreciate clarity/correction/insight here.
Increasing inequality has been a thing here in the US for a few decades now, but it’s not universal, and it’s not an inevitable consequence of economic growth. Moreover, it does not (in the US) consist of poor people getting poorer and rich people getting richer. It consists of poor people staying poor, or only getting a bit richer, while rich people get a whole lot richer. Thus, it is not demand destroying.
One could imagine this continuing with the advent of AI, or of everyone ending up equally dead, or many other outcomes.
In the rate-limiting resource, housing, the poor have indeed gotten poorer. Treating USD as a wealth primitive [ not to mention treating “demand” as a game-theoretic primitive ] is an economist-brained error.