This is the idea that at some point in scaling up an organization you could lose efficiency due to needing more/better management, more communication (meetings) needed and longer communication processes, “bloat” in general. I’m not claiming it’s likely to happen with AI, just another possible reason for increasing marginal cost with scale.
Hmm, that would apply to an individual firm but not to a product category, right? If Firm 1 is producing so much [AGI component X] that they pile up bureaucracy and inefficiency, then Firms 2, 3, 4, and 5 will start producing [AGI component X] with less bureaucracy, and undercut Firm 1, right? If there’s an optimal firm size, the market can still be arbitrarily large via arbitrarily many independent firms of that optimal size.
(Unless Firm 1 has a key patent, or uses its market power to do anticompetitive stuff, etc. …although I don’t expect IP law or other such forces to hold internationally given the stakes of AGI.)
I see how this could happen, but I’m not convinced this effect is actually happening. … I think my crux is that this isn’t unique to economists.
It’s definitely true that non-economists are capable of dismissing AGI for bad reasons, even if this post is not mainly addressed at non-economists. I think the thing I said is a contributory factor for at least some economists, based on my experience and conversations, but not all economists, and maybe I’m just mistaken about where those people are coming from. Oh well, it’s probably not worth putting too much effort into arguing about Bulverism. Thanks for your input though.
Hmm, that would apply to an individual firm but not to a product category, right? If Firm 1 is producing so much [AGI component X] that they pile up bureaucracy and inefficiency, then Firms 2, 3, 4, and 5 will start producing [AGI component X] with less bureaucracy, and undercut Firm 1, right? If there’s an optimal firm size, the market can still be arbitrarily large via arbitrarily many independent firms of that optimal size.
(Unless Firm 1 has a key patent, or uses its market power to do anticompetitive stuff, etc. …although I don’t expect IP law or other such forces to hold internationally given the stakes of AGI.)
(Separately, I think AGI will drastically increase economies of scale, particularly related to coordination problems.)
It’s definitely true that non-economists are capable of dismissing AGI for bad reasons, even if this post is not mainly addressed at non-economists. I think the thing I said is a contributory factor for at least some economists, based on my experience and conversations, but not all economists, and maybe I’m just mistaken about where those people are coming from. Oh well, it’s probably not worth putting too much effort into arguing about Bulverism. Thanks for your input though.