Do we have reason to believe we will be able to reduce uncertainty about lab lead times? Currently, it seems unclear even to insiders which lab has the best internal model for AI R&D. This could be because the lead between the labs is very small (i.e., <1 month) or because we have very wide uncertainty about lab lead times. If it’s the latter and things don’t improve, this could pose an issue in many situations where we would like the lead lab would like to slow down and “burn” their lead to prioritize safety research (i.e., Plan C). See also The US-China model gap is very uncertain.
Do we have reason to believe we will be able to reduce uncertainty about lab lead times? Currently, it seems unclear even to insiders which lab has the best internal model for AI R&D. This could be because the lead between the labs is very small (i.e., <1 month) or because we have very wide uncertainty about lab lead times. If it’s the latter and things don’t improve, this could pose an issue in many situations where we would like the lead lab would like to slow down and “burn” their lead to prioritize safety research (i.e., Plan C). See also The US-China model gap is very uncertain.