Once they realise the risk of extinction isn’t “tiny” (and we can all help, here), then the rational move is to not play, and prevent anyone else from playing.
Unfortunately, they aren’t rational. I developed this theme a little bit more in another reply, but to put it simply, in the US GAI is being pursued by insane individuals. No rational argument can stop someone who believes in that. And the other sides will try to protect themselves from these.
Once they realise the risk of extinction isn’t “tiny” (and we can all help, here), then the rational move is to not play, and prevent anyone else from playing.
Unfortunately, they aren’t rational. I developed this theme a little bit more in another reply, but to put it simply, in the US GAI is being pursued by insane individuals. No rational argument can stop someone who believes in that. And the other sides will try to protect themselves from these.
Ok, but Mutually Assured AI Malfunction (MAIM) is another possibility.