Hah, I actually quoted much of that same passage on IRC in the same boxing vein! Although as presented the scenario does have some problems:
00:23 < Ralith> that was depressing as fuck 00:24 <@gwern> kind of a magical UFAI, although a LWer would naturally ask why it hasn’t managed to free itself 00:24 < Ralith> gwern: gods, probably 00:24 <@gwern> Ralith: well, in this universe, gods seem killable 00:24 <@gwern> Ralith: so it doesn’t actually resolve the question of how it remains boxed 00:24 < Ralith> gwern: sure, but they’re probably more powerful 00:25 < Ralith> the real question is why isn’t whatever entity is powerful enough to keep it in place also keeping people away from it 00:25 <@gwern> Ralith: well, the only guards listed are faeries, and among the feats attributed to it is starting a war between the mortal and faerie folk, so... 00:26 < Ralith> a faerie is the one who that info came from, yes? 00:26 < Ralith> hardly an objective source 00:26 <@gwern> Ralith: and I would think a faerie reporting that faerie guard it increases credence 00:27 < Ralith> that only faerie guard it? 00:27 <@gwern> Ralith: well, Bast mentions no other guards 00:27 < Ralith> :P 00:28 < Ralith> anything capable of keeping it in that tree should be capable of keeping people away from it 00:28 < Ralith> since the faeries are presumably trying to do both, they can’t be the responsible party. 00:29 <@gwern> who said anything was keeping it in the tree? 00:29 < Ralith> gwern: I did
It is conceivable that there is no (near enough) future where Cthaeh is freed, thus it is powerless to affect its own fate, or is waiting for the right circumstances.
That seemed a little unlikely to me, though. As presented in the book, a minimum of many millennia have passed since the Cthaeh has begun operating, and possibly millions of years (in some frames of reference). It’s had enough power to set planes of existence at war with each other and apparently cause the death of gods. I can’t help but feel that it’s implausible that in all that time, not one forking path led to its freedom. Much more plausible that it’s somehow inherently trapped in or bound to the tree so there’s no meaningful way in which it could escape (which breaks the analogy to an UFAI).
Not by my reading. In your comment, you gave 3 possible explanations, 2 of which are the same (it gets freed, but a long time from ‘now’) and the third a restriction on its foresight which is otherwise arbitrary (‘powerless to affect its own fate’). Neither of these translate to ‘there is no such thing as freedom for it to obtain’.
Hah, I actually quoted much of that same passage on IRC in the same boxing vein! Although as presented the scenario does have some problems:
It is conceivable that there is no (near enough) future where Cthaeh is freed, thus it is powerless to affect its own fate, or is waiting for the right circumstances.
That seemed a little unlikely to me, though. As presented in the book, a minimum of many millennia have passed since the Cthaeh has begun operating, and possibly millions of years (in some frames of reference). It’s had enough power to set planes of existence at war with each other and apparently cause the death of gods. I can’t help but feel that it’s implausible that in all that time, not one forking path led to its freedom. Much more plausible that it’s somehow inherently trapped in or bound to the tree so there’s no meaningful way in which it could escape (which breaks the analogy to an UFAI).
Isn’t it what I said?
Not by my reading. In your comment, you gave 3 possible explanations, 2 of which are the same (it gets freed, but a long time from ‘now’) and the third a restriction on its foresight which is otherwise arbitrary (‘powerless to affect its own fate’). Neither of these translate to ‘there is no such thing as freedom for it to obtain’.
Alternatively, perhaps the Cthaeh’s ability to see the future is limited to those possible futures in which it remains in the tree.
Leading to a seriously dystopian variant on Tenchi Muyo!...