Well I don’t think it should be possible to convince a reasonable person at this point in time. But maybe some evidence that we might not be doomed. Yudkowsky and other’s ideas rest on some fairly plausible but complex assumptions. You’ll notice in the recent debate threads where Eliezer is arguing for inevitability of AI destroying us he will often resort to something like, “well that just doesn’t fit with what I know about intelligences”. At a certain point in these types of discussions you have to do some hand waving. Even if it’s really good hand waving, if there’s enough if it there’s a chance at least one piece is wrong enough to corrupt your conclusions. On the other hand, as he points out, we’re not even really trying, and it’s hard to see us doing so in time. So the hope that’s left is mostly that the problem just won’t be an issue or won’t be that hard for some unknown reason. I actually think this is sort of likely, given how difficult it is to analyze, it’s hard to have full trust in any conclusion.
Well I don’t think it should be possible to convince a reasonable person at this point in time. But maybe some evidence that we might not be doomed. Yudkowsky and other’s ideas rest on some fairly plausible but complex assumptions. You’ll notice in the recent debate threads where Eliezer is arguing for inevitability of AI destroying us he will often resort to something like, “well that just doesn’t fit with what I know about intelligences”. At a certain point in these types of discussions you have to do some hand waving. Even if it’s really good hand waving, if there’s enough if it there’s a chance at least one piece is wrong enough to corrupt your conclusions. On the other hand, as he points out, we’re not even really trying, and it’s hard to see us doing so in time. So the hope that’s left is mostly that the problem just won’t be an issue or won’t be that hard for some unknown reason. I actually think this is sort of likely, given how difficult it is to analyze, it’s hard to have full trust in any conclusion.