I think I am more optimistic than most about the idea that experimental evidence and iterative engineering of solutions will become increasingly effective as we approach AGI-level tech. I place most of my hope for the future on a sprint of productivity around alignment near the critical juncture.
I think it makes sense that this transition period between theory and experiment feels really scary to the theorists like Eliezer. To me, a much more experimentally minded person it feels like a mix of exciting tractability and looming danger.
To put it poetically, I feel like we are a surfer on the face of a huge swell of water predicted to become the largest wave the world has ever seen. Excited, terrified, determined. There is no rescue crew, it is do or die. In danger, certainly. But doomed? Not yet. We must sieze our chance. Skillfully, carefully, quickly. It all depends on this.
I think I am more optimistic than most about the idea that experimental evidence and iterative engineering of solutions will become increasingly effective as we approach AGI-level tech. I place most of my hope for the future on a sprint of productivity around alignment near the critical juncture. I think it makes sense that this transition period between theory and experiment feels really scary to the theorists like Eliezer. To me, a much more experimentally minded person it feels like a mix of exciting tractability and looming danger.
To put it poetically, I feel like we are a surfer on the face of a huge swell of water predicted to become the largest wave the world has ever seen. Excited, terrified, determined. There is no rescue crew, it is do or die. In danger, certainly. But doomed? Not yet. We must sieze our chance. Skillfully, carefully, quickly. It all depends on this.