Ha! Well done. I spent a week making sure my math was right and never thought of this. I agree that updating the truth probability is a better model of this situation, and I can confirm your numbers.
I suppose we could also update each day’s success chance, with some kind of prior balancing updating truth probability vs. success probability. Though by that point we are likely no longer “simplifying”.
Ha! Well done. I spent a week making sure my math was right and never thought of this. I agree that updating the truth probability is a better model of this situation, and I can confirm your numbers.
I suppose we could also update each day’s success chance, with some kind of prior balancing updating truth probability vs. success probability. Though by that point we are likely no longer “simplifying”.