If we evolved ethical inhibitions, and then we evolved to be intelligent enough to predict being caught so we’d know not to do it anyway, we’d overcorrect and have to either evolve away the inhibition, or evolve a particular inability to predict being caught. As such, I think the hypothesis that ethical inhibition is due to underestimating the chance of getting caught is clearly more reasonable. Even if we evolved it first, it would have gone away if we weren’t underestimating the chance of getting caught.
If we evolved ethical inhibitions, and then we evolved to be intelligent enough to predict being caught so we’d know not to do it anyway, we’d overcorrect and have to either evolve away the inhibition, or evolve a particular inability to predict being caught. As such, I think the hypothesis that ethical inhibition is due to underestimating the chance of getting caught is clearly more reasonable. Even if we evolved it first, it would have gone away if we weren’t underestimating the chance of getting caught.