ASML built its first working prototype of EUV technology in 2001, and told Reuters it took nearly two decades and billions of euros in R&D spending before it produced its first commercially-available chips in 2019.
If Chinese are twice as fast as the Dutch, they are going to get the first EUV-made chips ca. 2034. IIRC, their semiconductor industry has a lot of precedents for not maintaining ambitious time schedules set by the party
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/
’Summary
Shenzhen team completed a working prototype of a EUV machine in early 2025, sources say
The lithography machine, built by former ASML engineers, fills a factory floor, sources say
China’s EUV machine is undergoing testing, and has not produced working chips, sources say
Government is targeting 2028 for working chips, but sources say 2030 is more likely’
If Chinese are twice as fast as the Dutch, they are going to get the first EUV-made chips ca. 2034. IIRC, their semiconductor industry has a lot of precedents for not maintaining ambitious time schedules set by the party