Still pretty optimistic by the standards of the AGI safety field, somewhat shorter timelines than I reported in that post.
Neither of these really affect the work we do very much. I suppose if I were extremely pessimistic I would be doing something else, but even at a p(doom) of 50% I’d do basically the same things I’m doing now.
(And similarly individual team members have a wide variety of beliefs on both optimism and timelines. I actually don’t know their beliefs on those topics very well because these beliefs are usually not that action-relevant for us.)
Still pretty optimistic by the standards of the AGI safety field, somewhat shorter timelines than I reported in that post.
Neither of these really affect the work we do very much. I suppose if I were extremely pessimistic I would be doing something else, but even at a p(doom) of 50% I’d do basically the same things I’m doing now.
(And similarly individual team members have a wide variety of beliefs on both optimism and timelines. I actually don’t know their beliefs on those topics very well because these beliefs are usually not that action-relevant for us.)