When a coin is spinning, it’s either 100% going to land heads, or 100% going to land tails, I just don’t know which. If I knew every detail of every atom in the room, and had sufficient compute, I could tell up front. So should I use credence instead of probability there?
Probability is a statement about your state of mind and your knowledge. In so far as it’s about frequencies it’s about frequencies from an anthropic perspective—what percentage of minds in the same state of mind as myself are in a world where the coin lands head, and what percentage are in a world where it lands tails.
I’m not sure this distinction is real.
When a coin is spinning, it’s either 100% going to land heads, or 100% going to land tails, I just don’t know which. If I knew every detail of every atom in the room, and had sufficient compute, I could tell up front. So should I use credence instead of probability there?
Probability is a statement about your state of mind and your knowledge. In so far as it’s about frequencies it’s about frequencies from an anthropic perspective—what percentage of minds in the same state of mind as myself are in a world where the coin lands head, and what percentage are in a world where it lands tails.