I agree that ‘credence’ and ‘frequency’ are different things. But round here the word ‘probability’ does refer to credence rather than frequency. This isn’t a mistake; it’s just the way we’re using words.
Okay, but I’ve also seen rationalists use point estimates for probability in a way that led them to mess up Bayes, and such that it would be clear if they recognized the probability was uncertain (e.g., I saw this a few times related to covid predictions). I feel like it’s weird to use “frequency” for something that will only happen (or not happen) once, like whether the first AGI will lead to human extinction, though ultimately I don’t really care what word people are using for which concept.
I think it’s less a mistake of using point estimates, but rather not realizing certain probabilities are correlated, so you can’t just multiply them out.
I agree that ‘credence’ and ‘frequency’ are different things. But round here the word ‘probability’ does refer to credence rather than frequency. This isn’t a mistake; it’s just the way we’re using words.
Okay, but I’ve also seen rationalists use point estimates for probability in a way that led them to mess up Bayes, and such that it would be clear if they recognized the probability was uncertain (e.g., I saw this a few times related to covid predictions). I feel like it’s weird to use “frequency” for something that will only happen (or not happen) once, like whether the first AGI will lead to human extinction, though ultimately I don’t really care what word people are using for which concept.
I think it’s less a mistake of using point estimates, but rather not realizing certain probabilities are correlated, so you can’t just multiply them out.