Hm, I think I’m still confused about what thesis you’re pointing to and where, if anywhere, you and I disagree. I think we agree:
That you should be more hesitant to disagree in places where the incentives are strong for others to get things right (like stocks).
That you should be more hesitant to disagree with people who seem smart.
That you should be more hesitant to disagree about topics you are less knowledgeable about.
That you should be more hesitant to disagree about topics that are complex.
That the above is not an exhaustive list of things to consider when thinking about how hesitant you should be to disagree. There’s a lot more to it.
I think Eliezer as well as most reasonable people would agree with the above as well. The difficulty comes when you starting considering a specific example and getting concrete. How smart do we think the people who run the Bank of Japan are? Are they incentivized to do what is best for the country or are other incentives driving their policy? How complex is the topic?
For the Bank of Japan example, it sounds like you (as well as most others) think that Eliezer was too confident. Personally I am pretty agnostic about that point and don’t have much of an opinion.
I just don’t see why it matters. Regardless of whether Eliezer himself is prone to being overconfident, points 1 through 5 still stand, right? Or do you think one/part of Eliezer’s thesis goes beyond them?
Hm, I think I’m still confused about what thesis you’re pointing to and where, if anywhere, you and I disagree. I think we agree:
That you should be more hesitant to disagree in places where the incentives are strong for others to get things right (like stocks).
That you should be more hesitant to disagree with people who seem smart.
That you should be more hesitant to disagree about topics you are less knowledgeable about.
That you should be more hesitant to disagree about topics that are complex.
That the above is not an exhaustive list of things to consider when thinking about how hesitant you should be to disagree. There’s a lot more to it.
I think Eliezer as well as most reasonable people would agree with the above as well. The difficulty comes when you starting considering a specific example and getting concrete. How smart do we think the people who run the Bank of Japan are? Are they incentivized to do what is best for the country or are other incentives driving their policy? How complex is the topic?
For the Bank of Japan example, it sounds like you (as well as most others) think that Eliezer was too confident. Personally I am pretty agnostic about that point and don’t have much of an opinion.
I just don’t see why it matters. Regardless of whether Eliezer himself is prone to being overconfident, points 1 through 5 still stand, right? Or do you think one/part of Eliezer’s thesis goes beyond them?