I’m curious if you think you could have basically written this exact post a year ago. Or if not, what’s the relevant difference? (I admit this is partly a rhetorical question, but it’s mostly not.)
I think so, yeah. I think my probability of the next model being catastrophically dangerous is a bit higher than it was a year ago, mainly because the IMO gold medal result and similar improvements on models’ ability to reason on hard problems. An argument in the other direction is that the more data points you have along a capabilities curve, the more confident you can be that your model of the curve is accurate, although on balance I think this is probably outweighed by the fact that we are now closer to AGI than we were a year ago.
I’m curious if you think you could have basically written this exact post a year ago. Or if not, what’s the relevant difference? (I admit this is partly a rhetorical question, but it’s mostly not.)
I think so, yeah. I think my probability of the next model being catastrophically dangerous is a bit higher than it was a year ago, mainly because the IMO gold medal result and similar improvements on models’ ability to reason on hard problems. An argument in the other direction is that the more data points you have along a capabilities curve, the more confident you can be that your model of the curve is accurate, although on balance I think this is probably outweighed by the fact that we are now closer to AGI than we were a year ago.