Claude and Gemini both said I probably subscribe to FDT (although Claude was uncertain). I haven’t studied enough decision theory to have a strong belief about which is correct (if any), except that CDT is not it. I do have beliefs about specific thought experiments:
You should one-box, which rules out CDT
You should pay Parfit’s Hitchhiker, which rules out CDT and possibly EDT
You should pay in the Counterfactual Mugging (although the logic is complicated so I’m less sure about this one)
It’s plausible that no as-yet-proposed decision theory is viable, a la Vibe Decision Theory.
(For the avoidance of doubt: I don’t think “choose the answer with the best vibes” is a good or even coherent decision theory, but I do think the VDT post is a clean analysis of the shortcomings of various decision theories.)
Claude and Gemini both said I probably subscribe to FDT (although Claude was uncertain). I haven’t studied enough decision theory to have a strong belief about which is correct (if any), except that CDT is not it. I do have beliefs about specific thought experiments:
You should one-box, which rules out CDT
You should pay Parfit’s Hitchhiker, which rules out CDT and possibly EDT
You should pay in the Counterfactual Mugging (although the logic is complicated so I’m less sure about this one)
It’s plausible that no as-yet-proposed decision theory is viable, a la Vibe Decision Theory.
(For the avoidance of doubt: I don’t think “choose the answer with the best vibes” is a good or even coherent decision theory, but I do think the VDT post is a clean analysis of the shortcomings of various decision theories.)