Their capacity is still miles behind domestic demand, their quality still lags far behind Nvidia, and of course their capacity was going to ramp up a lot over time as is that of TSMC and Nvidia (and presumably Samsung and Intel and AMD). I don’t get it.
Does anyone seriously think that if we took down our export controls, that Huawei would cut back its production schedule? I didn’t think so.
As with Intel, you need to distinguish fabs from chip (and system) design, very different activities. Having (multiple) real customers is plausibly crucially important for a fledgling/struggling fab company (they let the fab company make the process of being a customer better, and set the right priorities), and it’s probably a major reason Intel Foundry is dying. Intentions to ramp up a lot or subsidies and vague domestic demand don’t necessarily help that much (it’s not necessarily centrally voluntary and non-fake demand, given the current product). If you have a somewhat worse product as a fab company, you don’t get comparable interest in it, and can’t get those multiple real customers.
As with Intel, you need to distinguish fabs from chip (and system) design, very different activities. Having (multiple) real customers is plausibly crucially important for a fledgling/struggling fab company (they let the fab company make the process of being a customer better, and set the right priorities), and it’s probably a major reason Intel Foundry is dying. Intentions to ramp up a lot or subsidies and vague domestic demand don’t necessarily help that much (it’s not necessarily centrally voluntary and non-fake demand, given the current product). If you have a somewhat worse product as a fab company, you don’t get comparable interest in it, and can’t get those multiple real customers.