Time discounting is often heavily applied in utility maximization. What exactly makes a thing today better than the same thing in 100 years? It think it can be broadly categorized into:
Probability of existing goes down over time [1]. Especially X-risk concerns go here.
Value drift: your values in the future will be different. Why would the current you optimize for those instead of the current ones?
Inflation and it’s causes: assuming continued improvement of things, everything will be easier to have or do in the future.
And of course there’s value in having the thing now, because then it starts producing value immediately. But this is separate from discounting.
The probability factor is often applied separately from time discounting. Value drift is rightly rejected by many models. And inflation can be forecasted separetely. Thus, I’m pretty sure I’ve been overdoing time discounting when attempting to actually math it out, which is admittedly rare.
Aside from values drift, there’s also acquiring new information. I know more about my immediate needs than I know about what my needs will be next year. Even if my values don’t change, I’m not a perfect predictor.
Time discounting is often heavily applied in utility maximization. What exactly makes a thing today better than the same thing in 100 years? It think it can be broadly categorized into:
Probability of existing goes down over time [1] . Especially X-risk concerns go here.
Value drift: your values in the future will be different. Why would the current you optimize for those instead of the current ones?
Inflation and it’s causes: assuming continued improvement of things, everything will be easier to have or do in the future.
And of course there’s value in having the thing now, because then it starts producing value immediately. But this is separate from discounting.
The probability factor is often applied separately from time discounting. Value drift is rightly rejected by many models. And inflation can be forecasted separetely. Thus, I’m pretty sure I’ve been overdoing time discounting when attempting to actually math it out, which is admittedly rare.
Both for you, and the opportunity you’re considering.
Aside from values drift, there’s also acquiring new information. I know more about my immediate needs than I know about what my needs will be next year. Even if my values don’t change, I’m not a perfect predictor.