I think your last paragraph is more or less correct. The way I’d show it would be to place a node labelled ‘decision’ between the top node and the left node, representing a decision you make based on decision-theoretical or other reasoning. There are then two additional questions:
1) Do we remove the causal arrow from the top node to the bottom one and replace it with an arrow from ‘decision’ to the bottom? Or do we leave that arrow in place?
2) Do we add a ‘free will’ node representing some kind of outside causation on ‘decision’, or do we let ‘decision’ be determined solely by the top node?
In the smoking problem, there’s usually no causal arrow from ‘decision’ to the bottom; in Newcomb’s, there usually is. Thus, if we’re assuming an independent ‘free will’ node, you should one-box but smoke.
Unknowns seems to be pushing the case where there’s no ‘free will’ node; your decision is purely a product of the top node. In that case, I say the answer is not to waste any mental effort trying to decide the right choice because whether or not you deliberate doesn’t matter. If you could change the top node, you’d want to change it so that you one-box and don’t smoke, but you can’t. If you could change your decision node without changing the top node, you’d want to change it so you one-box and smoke, but you can’t do that either. There’s no meaningful answer to which impossible change is the ‘right’ one.
This is like saying a 100% determinate chess playing computer shouldn’t look ahead, since it cannot affect its actions. That will result in a bad move. And likewise, just doing what you feel like here will result in smoking, since you (by stipulation) feel like doing that. So it is better to deliberate about it, like the chess computer, and choose both to one box and not to smoke.
I think your last paragraph is more or less correct. The way I’d show it would be to place a node labelled ‘decision’ between the top node and the left node, representing a decision you make based on decision-theoretical or other reasoning. There are then two additional questions: 1) Do we remove the causal arrow from the top node to the bottom one and replace it with an arrow from ‘decision’ to the bottom? Or do we leave that arrow in place? 2) Do we add a ‘free will’ node representing some kind of outside causation on ‘decision’, or do we let ‘decision’ be determined solely by the top node?
In the smoking problem, there’s usually no causal arrow from ‘decision’ to the bottom; in Newcomb’s, there usually is. Thus, if we’re assuming an independent ‘free will’ node, you should one-box but smoke.
Unknowns seems to be pushing the case where there’s no ‘free will’ node; your decision is purely a product of the top node. In that case, I say the answer is not to waste any mental effort trying to decide the right choice because whether or not you deliberate doesn’t matter. If you could change the top node, you’d want to change it so that you one-box and don’t smoke, but you can’t. If you could change your decision node without changing the top node, you’d want to change it so you one-box and smoke, but you can’t do that either. There’s no meaningful answer to which impossible change is the ‘right’ one.
This is like saying a 100% determinate chess playing computer shouldn’t look ahead, since it cannot affect its actions. That will result in a bad move. And likewise, just doing what you feel like here will result in smoking, since you (by stipulation) feel like doing that. So it is better to deliberate about it, like the chess computer, and choose both to one box and not to smoke.