Therefore, the base rate at which Pangram will flag investigated text as AI generated will be much higher than the base rate for a random sample of text. In other words, the evidence provided by Pangram is already more or less accounted for by the mere fact you thought to submit the essay to it.
I think the “much higher” claim only makes sense if your prior for random samples of 2026 internet text is much lower than mine.
I think the “much higher” claim only makes sense if your prior for random samples of 2026 internet text is much lower than mine.