I think it’s somewhat likely (and quite bad) that various patchwork regulations will be passed in some jurisdictions that limit the benefits and dispersion of AI in the name of protecting jobs or whatever, or various things will already be illegal under current law and AI won’t change that one way or the other, e.g. AI will make it easier / cheaper to build a house or a nuclear power plant, but it will still be illegal to do so in most places that you’d want to.
OTOH I think it’s unlikely (but would be good), if there were a national (and eventually global) moratorium on frontier training runs and research.
In practice I think what is actually on track to happen is that the former kind of regulation will drive more resources (GPUs, human capital, etc.) away from inference and applications and towards research.
(It would be a sad choice, but I would trade away self-driving cars to stave off unaligned ASI. In practice though I think a lot of AI safety advocacy, especially outside of LW, is not actually offering that trade, and will in practice bring about something close to the opposite.)
I think it’s somewhat likely (and quite bad) that various patchwork regulations will be passed in some jurisdictions that limit the benefits and dispersion of AI in the name of protecting jobs or whatever, or various things will already be illegal under current law and AI won’t change that one way or the other, e.g. AI will make it easier / cheaper to build a house or a nuclear power plant, but it will still be illegal to do so in most places that you’d want to.
OTOH I think it’s unlikely (but would be good), if there were a national (and eventually global) moratorium on frontier training runs and research.
In practice I think what is actually on track to happen is that the former kind of regulation will drive more resources (GPUs, human capital, etc.) away from inference and applications and towards research.
(It would be a sad choice, but I would trade away self-driving cars to stave off unaligned ASI. In practice though I think a lot of AI safety advocacy, especially outside of LW, is not actually offering that trade, and will in practice bring about something close to the opposite.)