(3) 0.1% (=10^(-3)) to 1% (once-in-a-lifetime level surprise on an important question)
10^-3 is roughly the probability that I try to start my car and it won’t start because the
battery has gone bad. Is the scale intended only for questions one asks once per
lifetime? There are lots of questions that one asks once a day, hence my car example.
That is precisely why I added the phrase “on an important question”. It was intended to rule out exactly those sorts of things.
The intended reference class (for me) consists of matters like the Amanda Knox case. But if I got into the habit of judging similar cases every day, that wouldn’t work either.
10^-3 is roughly the probability that I try to start my car and it won’t start because the battery has gone bad. Is the scale intended only for questions one asks once per lifetime? There are lots of questions that one asks once a day, hence my car example.
That is precisely why I added the phrase “on an important question”. It was intended to rule out exactly those sorts of things.
The intended reference class (for me) consists of matters like the Amanda Knox case. But if I got into the habit of judging similar cases every day, that wouldn’t work either.
Think “questions I might write a LW post about”.