I think of “brain-like AGI” as a threat model, not a plan. And then a question is whether the threat model is plausible vs far-fetched, and I guess you’re saying that my argument for “it’s plausible” is solid but I’m not communicating it clearly?
Nominally, my argument for “it’s plausible” is back in §1.5 (“What’s the probability that we’ll eventually wind up with brain-like AGI?”), and it sounds like you’re in “Opinion #4” camp. (“Opinion #4:“Brains are SO complicated—and we understand them SO little after SO much effort—that there’s just no way we’ll get brain-like AGI even in the next 100 years.”) I could flesh out my answer to Opinion #4, e.g. by adding three one-sentence bullet points that follow the three “brain complexity is easy to overstate” slides here. Hmm, I’ll think about it. The post is already quite long.
UPDATE JUNE 2026: I made that edit to Post 1, and also added a section on the “threat model not a plan” point.
I think of “brain-like AGI” as a threat model, not a plan. And then a question is whether the threat model is plausible vs far-fetched, and I guess you’re saying that my argument for “it’s plausible” is solid but I’m not communicating it clearly?
Nominally, my argument for “it’s plausible” is back in §1.5 (“What’s the probability that we’ll eventually wind up with brain-like AGI?”), and it sounds like you’re in “Opinion #4” camp. (“Opinion #4: “Brains are SO complicated—and we understand them SO little after SO much effort—that there’s just no way we’ll get brain-like AGI even in the next 100 years.”) I could flesh out my answer to Opinion #4, e.g. by adding three one-sentence bullet points that follow the three “brain complexity is easy to overstate” slides here. Hmm, I’ll think about it. The post is already quite long.
UPDATE JUNE 2026: I made that edit to Post 1, and also added a section on the “threat model not a plan” point.