All right—but here the evidence predicted would simply be “the coin landed on heads”, no? I don’t really the contradiction between what you’re saying and conventional probability theory (more or less all which was developped with the specific idea of making predictions, winning games etc.) Yes I agree that saying “the coin landed on heads with probability 1/3″ is a somewhat strange way of putting things (the coin either did or did not land on heads) but it’s a shorthand for a conceptual framework that has firmly simple and sound foundations.
All right—but here the evidence predicted would simply be “the coin landed on heads”, no? I don’t really the contradiction between what you’re saying and conventional probability theory (more or less all which was developped with the specific idea of making predictions, winning games etc.) Yes I agree that saying “the coin landed on heads with probability 1/3″ is a somewhat strange way of putting things (the coin either did or did not land on heads) but it’s a shorthand for a conceptual framework that has firmly simple and sound foundations.