Outside view works as long as you can usefully classify underlying structures using surface properties. It breaks when reality starts to ignore the joints at which you previously carved it. Thus, it’s prudent to create big categories, with margins wide enough to capture most black swans.
Qualitative inside view can diverge from reality due to unanticipated circumstances, pointing in the wrong direction as a result. But both outside view and inside view are built on (the same) knowledge, not on reality itself. If qualitative inside view breaks the outside view, it shows a problem: categories of the outside view are not wide enough to capture even this (weakly) anticipated dynamic, when they are supposed to be black swan-proof, to survive things unanticipated. Either the inside view should be shown wrong, given current knowledge, or the outside view should be rebuilt to withstand the inside view.
Outside view works as long as you can usefully classify underlying structures using surface properties. It breaks when reality starts to ignore the joints at which you previously carved it. Thus, it’s prudent to create big categories, with margins wide enough to capture most black swans.
Qualitative inside view can diverge from reality due to unanticipated circumstances, pointing in the wrong direction as a result. But both outside view and inside view are built on (the same) knowledge, not on reality itself. If qualitative inside view breaks the outside view, it shows a problem: categories of the outside view are not wide enough to capture even this (weakly) anticipated dynamic, when they are supposed to be black swan-proof, to survive things unanticipated. Either the inside view should be shown wrong, given current knowledge, or the outside view should be rebuilt to withstand the inside view.