Maybe you think it’s something else? If so, what? (Not a rhetorical question- I have three or four candidates myself.)
Being able to do the math is important.
Maybe you think the verbal version is sufficient?
Maybe you think people don’t actually do the math much even when they can, so it doesn’t matter?
This formulation is a meaningful step forward.
Maybe you think the theorem version is fine and people can rederive the odds version?
Maybe you think mentioning the odds version partway through the other guides is fine?
Most rationalists can’t write out Bayes Theorem, and can’t correctly answer a mammogram problem.
Maybe you think they can? (I invite you to test this at your local LessWrong meetup and report back! If you want to make a bet about it, I can probably get a lot of LessWrong meetups to test this and report back!)
Maybe you object to “rationalist” being defined by ~self-identification, such that if someone can’t write it out or answer the mammogram problem they don’t count as a rationalist?
Some cruxes for me:
Bayes is the most important part of rationality.
Maybe you think it’s something else? If so, what? (Not a rhetorical question- I have three or four candidates myself.)
Being able to do the math is important.
Maybe you think the verbal version is sufficient?
Maybe you think people don’t actually do the math much even when they can, so it doesn’t matter?
This formulation is a meaningful step forward.
Maybe you think the theorem version is fine and people can rederive the odds version?
Maybe you think mentioning the odds version partway through the other guides is fine?
Most rationalists can’t write out Bayes Theorem, and can’t correctly answer a mammogram problem.
Maybe you think they can? (I invite you to test this at your local LessWrong meetup and report back! If you want to make a bet about it, I can probably get a lot of LessWrong meetups to test this and report back!)
Maybe you object to “rationalist” being defined by ~self-identification, such that if someone can’t write it out or answer the mammogram problem they don’t count as a rationalist?