This is one of those situations where rank ordering is superior to precision estimates. Having identified the approximate probabilities of success, and multiplied them by their estimated impact, focusing on the details of that number is deeply irrelevant it seems to me. Put the options in order from best to worst, do the best thing, and anchor emotionally on that. What are you doing? The right thing to do.
Once the task is begun I almost never think about the probability of success again. All the updating was done leading up to the decision; there’s no reason to visit the question again until some kind of big new information arrives, like confirmation what you are doing can’t possibly work or similar.
This is one of those situations where rank ordering is superior to precision estimates. Having identified the approximate probabilities of success, and multiplied them by their estimated impact, focusing on the details of that number is deeply irrelevant it seems to me. Put the options in order from best to worst, do the best thing, and anchor emotionally on that. What are you doing? The right thing to do.
Once the task is begun I almost never think about the probability of success again. All the updating was done leading up to the decision; there’s no reason to visit the question again until some kind of big new information arrives, like confirmation what you are doing can’t possibly work or similar.