The central hypothesis of “takeoff speeds” is that at the time of serious AGI being developed, it is perfectly anti-Thielian in that it is devoid of secrets
No, the slow takeoff model just precludes there being one big secret that unlocks both 30%/year growth and dyson spheres. It’s totally compatible with a bunch of medium-sized $1B secrets that different actors discover, adding up to hyperbolic economic growth in the years leading up to “rising out of the atmosphere”.
Rounding off the slow takeoff hypothesis to “lots and lots of little innovations adding up to every key AGI threshold, which lots of actors are investing $10 million in at a time” seems like black-and-white thinking, demanding that the future either be perfectly Thielien or perfectly anti-Thielien. The real question is a quantitative one — how lumpy will takeoff be?
No, the slow takeoff model just precludes there being one big secret that unlocks both 30%/year growth and dyson spheres. It’s totally compatible with a bunch of medium-sized $1B secrets that different actors discover, adding up to hyperbolic economic growth in the years leading up to “rising out of the atmosphere”.
Rounding off the slow takeoff hypothesis to “lots and lots of little innovations adding up to every key AGI threshold, which lots of actors are investing $10 million in at a time” seems like black-and-white thinking, demanding that the future either be perfectly Thielien or perfectly anti-Thielien. The real question is a quantitative one — how lumpy will takeoff be?