I think you’re 100% right. Most (>>80%) of the bets I see on Long Bets, or predictions on MetaCalculus, are underspecified to the point where where a human mediator would have to make a judgement call that can be considered unfair to someone.
To be clear, I have spent a ton of time on Metaculus and I find this impression incorrect. I have spent comparatively little time on Long Bets but I think it’s also wrong there for the most part.
I think you may have accidentally called out parties who are, in my opinion, exemplars of what solid prediction platforms should look like. There are far, far worse parties that you could have called out.
To be clear, I have spent a ton of time on Metaculus and I find this impression incorrect. I have spent comparatively little time on Long Bets but I think it’s also wrong there for the most part.
I think you may have accidentally called out parties who are, in my opinion, exemplars of what solid prediction platforms should look like. There are far, far worse parties that you could have called out.