GPT-4 is expected to have about 10^14 parameters and be ready in a few years. And, we already know that GPT-3 can write code. The following all seem (to me at least) like very reasonable conjectures:
(i) Writing code is one of the tasks at which GPT-4 will have (at least) human level capability.
(ii) Clones of GPT-4 will be produced fairly rapidly after GPT-4, say 1-3 years.
(iii) GPT-4 and its clones will have a significant impact on society. This will show up in the real economy.
(iv) GPT-4 will be enough to shock governments into paying attention. (But as we have seen with climate change governments can pay attention to an issue for a long time without effectively doing anything about it.)
(v) Someone is going to ask for GPT-4 (clone) to produce code that generates AGI. (Implicitly, if not explicitly.)
I have absolutely no idea whether GPT-4 will succeed at this endeavor. But if not, GPT-5 should be available a few years later....
There was a Q&A where Sam Altman said GPT-4 is going to be a lot smaller than that (in particular, that it wouldn’t have a lot more parameters than GPT-3).
GPT-4 is expected to have about 10^14 parameters and be ready in a few years. And, we already know that GPT-3 can write code. The following all seem (to me at least) like very reasonable conjectures:
(i) Writing code is one of the tasks at which GPT-4 will have (at least) human level capability.
(ii) Clones of GPT-4 will be produced fairly rapidly after GPT-4, say 1-3 years.
(iii) GPT-4 and its clones will have a significant impact on society. This will show up in the real economy.
(iv) GPT-4 will be enough to shock governments into paying attention. (But as we have seen with climate change governments can pay attention to an issue for a long time without effectively doing anything about it.)
(v) Someone is going to ask for GPT-4 (clone) to produce code that generates AGI. (Implicitly, if not explicitly.)
I have absolutely no idea whether GPT-4 will succeed at this endeavor. But if not, GPT-5 should be available a few years later....
(And, of course, this is just one pathway.)
There was a Q&A where Sam Altman said GPT-4 is going to be a lot smaller than that (in particular, that it wouldn’t have a lot more parameters than GPT-3).
You appear to be correct. I will withdraw my comment.