Yes, transhumanists used to say 2045 and it was considered a bit aggressive, times have changed!
IMO, my latest dates are from 2040-2050, and if it doesn’t happen by then, then I’ll consider AI to likely never reach what people on LW thought.
What? I have a good 20-25% on AGI a few decades after we understand the brain, and the former could easily be 100-250 years out. Probably other stuff accelerates a lot by then but who knows!
What? I have a good 20-25% on AGI a few decades after we understand the brain, and the former could easily be 100-250 years out. Probably other stuff accelerates a lot by then but who knows!
Yes, transhumanists used to say 2045 and it was considered a bit aggressive, times have changed!
What? I have a good 20-25% on AGI a few decades after we understand the brain, and the former could easily be 100-250 years out. Probably other stuff accelerates a lot by then but who knows!
Fair enough, reworded that statement.