Do you have hard numbers on how many swingers and polyamorous people in the West have HIV?
Do you have any hard numbers about how many partners typical Southern Africans have? As for polyamorous, there are a lot of them on LW. None have reported having to deal with AIDS in the community.
Do you have any hard numbers about how many partners typical Southern Africans have?
For the nth time, I’m not talking about the number of partners as such, but the number of concurrent partners. And yes, I do have hard numbers on those, some of which you’d have seen had you flicked through the SA J. HIV Med. article I’ve already linked and quoted. See figures 2 & 3 if you’re having trouble finding them; figure 2′s blurrier than I’d like but you can find numbers from the same data set plotted more clearly in this Lancet article, which is reference 23 in that SA J. HIV Med. article.
As for polyamorous, there are a lot of them on LW. None have reported having to deal with AIDS in the community.
Unless there’s reason to think polyamorous LWers are broadly representative of polyamorous people in the West generally, this doesn’t mean much. And I see no reason to think there is any reason, because you haven’t given any, and LWers in general are hilariously unrepresentative of the West in general. As a concrete example (albeit one based on self-reported data), our mean IQ is allegedly 138. (And yes, the mean remains unrepresentatively high among polyamorous respondents. Looking at the data myself, the mean IQ is 144 for survey takers claiming to have multiple current partners.)
Also, even if we assume polyamorous LWers are representative of all polyamorous Westerners, there’s another matter of numbers. While many people on our survey said they prefer polyamorous relationships (Yvain’s summary says 234), there are far fewer LWers who report actually having multiple partners and being heterosexual and living in the West and actually posting on LW. Taking Yvain’s public-use data for the 2013 survey, I count 86 people who said they had multiple partners, 43 of whom report being heterosexual, of whom 39 are left when I subtract out those in Brazil, Greece & Slovenia. How these people used LW seems to be a missing variable in the public data, but Yvain’s summary says 49% of survey replies were from lurkers. If the same rate applies to our sub-sub-sub-sample, that’d leave only 20 relevant LWers, at which point it’d be much less surprising that the relevant group hadn’t reported any AIDS concerns.
Stepping back and looking at this conversation as a whole, I’m going to walk away from it, because it just isn’t productive. You’re not showing any sign of changing your beliefs in the face of contrary evidence & argument, you’re leaving me to take up almost all of the argumentative burden, and by all appearances you’re either unable or unwilling to reason about this properly.
When I pointed out you made a fallacious inference, you didn’t acknowledge that — not even to dispute it, oddly.
You repeatedly conflate two ideas which, although presumably correlated, are nonetheless distinct, and you’re not respecting that distinction even though it matters greatly to the theory you wish to refute.
You show no sign of having even glanced at the sources I’ve referenced. Nor do you seem to be reading my replies carefully.
You don’t refer to specific sources for your own claims. I still have no idea where you “herd” “~15 years ago” that subtype C was going to “break into the western heterosexual population real soon now”.
When I explicitly ask whether you have specific HIV prevalence numbers, you dodge the question by demanding numbers you could’ve found by reading my sources yourself.
At least one of your questions, as stated, assumed a false premise. When I pointed that out, you didn’t acknowledge it (again, not even to disagree).
You mostly argue by posing would-be killer objections to the orthodox model, one at a time and without substantiation, and when one objection gets knocked flat you don’t acknowledge that but just move on to your next. I match that pattern of arguing to conspiracy theorists and others engaging in motivated cognition to defend a bizarre hypothesis; at no time is a semi-coherent alternative theory laid out by the arguer, just a procession of loosely linked anomalies presented as Devastating Critiques which turn out, on closer examination, to be irrelevancies, non-anomalies, or just really piss-weak evidence against the orthodox theory.
Speaking of bizarre hypotheses, the idea that a virus can be transmitted by anal sex but not at all by penis-in-vagina sex is quite an odd one, and you act as if utterly unaware of this. You argue like the idea’s almost self-evidently true and everybody else is being inexplicably thick in disregarding it, even though it’s an a priori unlikely hypothesis. (And even though you can’t have applied much effort to understand why the relevant experts disregard it, because you raise objections they’ve tackled years ago in Googleable papers.)
The most parsimonious explanation of these facts is that, at least on this topic, you can’t or won’t think straight. Whichever is the case, you’re wasting my time, so I’m done here.
Do you have any hard numbers about how many partners typical Southern Africans have? As for polyamorous, there are a lot of them on LW. None have reported having to deal with AIDS in the community.
For the nth time, I’m not talking about the number of partners as such, but the number of concurrent partners. And yes, I do have hard numbers on those, some of which you’d have seen had you flicked through the SA J. HIV Med. article I’ve already linked and quoted. See figures 2 & 3 if you’re having trouble finding them; figure 2′s blurrier than I’d like but you can find numbers from the same data set plotted more clearly in this Lancet article, which is reference 23 in that SA J. HIV Med. article.
Unless there’s reason to think polyamorous LWers are broadly representative of polyamorous people in the West generally, this doesn’t mean much. And I see no reason to think there is any reason, because you haven’t given any, and LWers in general are hilariously unrepresentative of the West in general. As a concrete example (albeit one based on self-reported data), our mean IQ is allegedly 138. (And yes, the mean remains unrepresentatively high among polyamorous respondents. Looking at the data myself, the mean IQ is 144 for survey takers claiming to have multiple current partners.)
Also, even if we assume polyamorous LWers are representative of all polyamorous Westerners, there’s another matter of numbers. While many people on our survey said they prefer polyamorous relationships (Yvain’s summary says 234), there are far fewer LWers who report actually having multiple partners and being heterosexual and living in the West and actually posting on LW. Taking Yvain’s public-use data for the 2013 survey, I count 86 people who said they had multiple partners, 43 of whom report being heterosexual, of whom 39 are left when I subtract out those in Brazil, Greece & Slovenia. How these people used LW seems to be a missing variable in the public data, but Yvain’s summary says 49% of survey replies were from lurkers. If the same rate applies to our sub-sub-sub-sample, that’d leave only 20 relevant LWers, at which point it’d be much less surprising that the relevant group hadn’t reported any AIDS concerns.
Stepping back and looking at this conversation as a whole, I’m going to walk away from it, because it just isn’t productive. You’re not showing any sign of changing your beliefs in the face of contrary evidence & argument, you’re leaving me to take up almost all of the argumentative burden, and by all appearances you’re either unable or unwilling to reason about this properly.
When I pointed out you made a fallacious inference, you didn’t acknowledge that — not even to dispute it, oddly.
You repeatedly conflate two ideas which, although presumably correlated, are nonetheless distinct, and you’re not respecting that distinction even though it matters greatly to the theory you wish to refute.
You show no sign of having even glanced at the sources I’ve referenced. Nor do you seem to be reading my replies carefully.
You don’t refer to specific sources for your own claims. I still have no idea where you “herd” “~15 years ago” that subtype C was going to “break into the western heterosexual population real soon now”.
When I explicitly ask whether you have specific HIV prevalence numbers, you dodge the question by demanding numbers you could’ve found by reading my sources yourself.
At least one of your questions, as stated, assumed a false premise. When I pointed that out, you didn’t acknowledge it (again, not even to disagree).
You mostly argue by posing would-be killer objections to the orthodox model, one at a time and without substantiation, and when one objection gets knocked flat you don’t acknowledge that but just move on to your next. I match that pattern of arguing to conspiracy theorists and others engaging in motivated cognition to defend a bizarre hypothesis; at no time is a semi-coherent alternative theory laid out by the arguer, just a procession of loosely linked anomalies presented as Devastating Critiques which turn out, on closer examination, to be irrelevancies, non-anomalies, or just really piss-weak evidence against the orthodox theory.
Speaking of bizarre hypotheses, the idea that a virus can be transmitted by anal sex but not at all by penis-in-vagina sex is quite an odd one, and you act as if utterly unaware of this. You argue like the idea’s almost self-evidently true and everybody else is being inexplicably thick in disregarding it, even though it’s an a priori unlikely hypothesis. (And even though you can’t have applied much effort to understand why the relevant experts disregard it, because you raise objections they’ve tackled years ago in Googleable papers.)
The most parsimonious explanation of these facts is that, at least on this topic, you can’t or won’t think straight. Whichever is the case, you’re wasting my time, so I’m done here.
I’d guess that condom usage is way more widespread among LWers than among the general population of southern Africa.