Thanks! Yeah, I think that’s making the same basic point with a different focus.
And that makes me more confident in changing the title, so doing that now. (Original title: “Conditional prediction markets are, specifically, conditioned on the thing happening”.)
See also Futarchy implements evidential decision theory (Caspar Oesterheld, 2017).
Thanks! Yeah, I think that’s making the same basic point with a different focus.
And that makes me more confident in changing the title, so doing that now. (Original title: “Conditional prediction markets are, specifically, conditioned on the thing happening”.)