I believe that the most important fundamental flaw for Futarchy isn’t what is written here, but that the flaw this essay identifies is in fact sufficient to be described as an important fundamental flaw. I do not believe it is possible to patch out the most fundamental flaw.
My thought is that the most fundamental flaw is that you are asking for how people think the question will be resolved, and not the thing that is being referenced, so I think that prediction markets in general should be seen as just a (slightly unusual) type of opinion polling where you can theoretically win money by guessing other people’s opinion’s in the future. It’s very meta. Prediction markets are very heavily selected for a specific type of person, so it is also an extremely biased poll. I do not believe that the self-selection is notably for accuracy. The chance to win money is likely to lead to notably more rigor than many other forms of polling (but also attracts gamblers).
Futarchy is just an unusual patch on top of prediction markets, and doesn’t fundamentally change what a prediction market is. Like noted in the essay, that question is: what is the world like if this happens? And not: what effect does doing this have?
I believe that the most important fundamental flaw for Futarchy isn’t what is written here, but that the flaw this essay identifies is in fact sufficient to be described as an important fundamental flaw. I do not believe it is possible to patch out the most fundamental flaw.
My thought is that the most fundamental flaw is that you are asking for how people think the question will be resolved, and not the thing that is being referenced, so I think that prediction markets in general should be seen as just a (slightly unusual) type of opinion polling where you can theoretically win money by guessing other people’s opinion’s in the future. It’s very meta. Prediction markets are very heavily selected for a specific type of person, so it is also an extremely biased poll. I do not believe that the self-selection is notably for accuracy. The chance to win money is likely to lead to notably more rigor than many other forms of polling (but also attracts gamblers).
Futarchy is just an unusual patch on top of prediction markets, and doesn’t fundamentally change what a prediction market is. Like noted in the essay, that question is: what is the world like if this happens? And not: what effect does doing this have?