Human brains are estimated to be ~1e16flops equivalent, suggesting about 10-100 of these maxed-out GPUs a decade hence could be sufficient to implement a commodity AGI (Leading Nvidia A100 GPU already touts 1.2 p-ops Int8 with sparsity), at perhaps 10-100kW power consumption, (less than $5/hour if data center is in low electricity cost market). There are about 50x 1000mm² GPUs per 300mm wafer, and latest generation TSMC N3 process costs about $20000 per wafer—eg an AGI per wafer seems likely.
It’s likely then that (if it exists and is allowed) personal ownership of human-level AGI will be, like car ownership, within the financial means of a large proportion of humanity within 10-20 years, and their brain power will be cheaper to employ than essentially all human workers. Economics will likely hasten rather than slow an AI apocalypse.
Well, depending on who you ask, you’ll get numbers between 1e13 and 1e18 for the human brain FLOP/s equivalent. So I think there is lots of uncertainty about it.
However, I do agree that if it was at 1e16, your reasoning sounds plausible to me. What a wild imagination.
Human brains are estimated to be ~1e16flops equivalent, suggesting about 10-100 of these maxed-out GPUs a decade hence could be sufficient to implement a commodity AGI (Leading Nvidia A100 GPU already touts 1.2 p-ops Int8 with sparsity), at perhaps 10-100kW power consumption, (less than $5/hour if data center is in low electricity cost market). There are about 50x 1000mm² GPUs per 300mm wafer, and latest generation TSMC N3 process costs about $20000 per wafer—eg an AGI per wafer seems likely.
It’s likely then that (if it exists and is allowed) personal ownership of human-level AGI will be, like car ownership, within the financial means of a large proportion of humanity within 10-20 years, and their brain power will be cheaper to employ than essentially all human workers. Economics will likely hasten rather than slow an AI apocalypse.
Well, depending on who you ask, you’ll get numbers between 1e13 and 1e18 for the human brain FLOP/s equivalent. So I think there is lots of uncertainty about it.
However, I do agree that if it was at 1e16, your reasoning sounds plausible to me. What a wild imagination.
Jacob Cannell thinks brains are doing 10^14 10^15 FLOP/s.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xwBuoE9p8GE7RAuhd/brain-efficiency-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know