Do note that there is the question of whether the confidence level came from in the first place. If I don’t have a set of 10k statements that look the same to me, of which about one is wrong, from where comes my confidence level of .9999? How did I distinguish it from a confidence level of .999?
I may have updated from priors to arrive at that level. It may be my prior.
I can make infinitely many true statements (using the method I outlined above). If I want to reach a certain number of true statements say Y, I can make Y true statements, and make false statements for the rest to reach the desired confidence level.
If I want to reach a certain number of true statements say Y, I can make Y true statements, and make false statements for the rest to reach the desired confidence level.
If you’re doing the thing correctly, you view the statements as equally probable; otherwise it doesn’t make sense to group them together. It’s not “A=A, B=B, C=C, and D=E, all at confidence level 75%” because I can tell the difference, and would be better off saying “the first three at confidence level 1-epsilon, the last at confidence level epsilon.”
I may have updated from priors to arrive at that level.
It may be my prior.
I can make infinitely many true statements (using the method I outlined above). If I want to reach a certain number of true statements say Y, I can make Y true statements, and make false statements for the rest to reach the desired confidence level.
If you’re doing the thing correctly, you view the statements as equally probable; otherwise it doesn’t make sense to group them together. It’s not “A=A, B=B, C=C, and D=E, all at confidence level 75%” because I can tell the difference, and would be better off saying “the first three at confidence level 1-epsilon, the last at confidence level epsilon.”
I see.