I’d be curious about how your timelines updated. Last year you wrote:
Over the past year, my timelines have become even more bimodal than they already were. The key question is whether o1/o3-style models achieve criticality (i.e. are able to autonomously self-improve in non-narrow ways), including possibly under the next generation of base model. My median guess is that they won’t and that the excitement about them is very overblown. But I’m not very confident in that guess.
If the excitement is overblown, then we’re most likely still about 1 transformers-level paradigm shift away from AGI capable of criticality, and timelines of ~10 years seem reasonable. Conditional on that world, I also think we’re likely to see another AI winter in the next year or so.
If the excitement is not overblown, then we’re probably looking at more like 2-3 years to criticality. In that case, any happy path probably requires outsourcing a lot of alignment research to AI, and then the main bottleneck is probably our own understanding of how to align much-smarter-than-human AGI.
To me it seems plausible that we’re in some intermediate world where progress continues but we still have like 5 years to criticality.
I’d be curious about how your timelines updated. Last year you wrote:
To me it seems plausible that we’re in some intermediate world where progress continues but we still have like 5 years to criticality.