Practically speaking, I primarily do multiplications of odds.
“I thought the chance of this happening was 20:1, but after seeing this new evidence that I assigned 1:4 against seeing, I’m now down to 5:1, which is a much more reasonable hypothesis to now be worried about and taking actions to manage.”
To be clear, the odds aren’t my literal first thought, but as I’m reflecting on how strong the evidence is and try to clarify my reasoning, or as I’m trying to make the argument to my teammates, being able to use conditional probabilities is very helpful.
Practically speaking, I primarily do multiplications of odds.
To be clear, the odds aren’t my literal first thought, but as I’m reflecting on how strong the evidence is and try to clarify my reasoning, or as I’m trying to make the argument to my teammates, being able to use conditional probabilities is very helpful.