While it’s an interesting idea, my credence for “upgrade in ~15 years” is essentially zero.
We don’t currently know how to make any significant improvement in human average intelligence, let alone a way to upgrade humans well beyond current peak intelligence. Even if we had actual prototypes right now that reliably worked for (say) significantly upgrading chimpanzees, it would likely take 15 years just to get through the large amount of adaptations, ethical reviews, and studies to get them adequately tested on humans. But we don’t, and there aren’t even plausible conceptual models yet that will lead to prototypes.
We’re still working our way through setting up the foundations for gathering the data that we need to start developing such models. That said, it is possible that we may get some radical breakthroughs in both technology and medical knowledge very quickly, as well as radical restructuring of risk approaches in medical establishments.
In such a case I could imagine such upgrades in as short as 30 years. However, I expect almost all worlds in which we get such radical changes so quickly are ones in which we already developed artificial superintelligence and it didn’t kill us.
We don’t currently know how to make any significant improvement in human average intelligence, let alone a way to upgrade humans well beyond current peak intelligence.
Specifically, I heard we can’t increase intelligence or engineer a desirable trait via somatic gene editing, which limits a lot of genetic engineering’s usefulness.
While it’s an interesting idea, my credence for “upgrade in ~15 years” is essentially zero.
We don’t currently know how to make any significant improvement in human average intelligence, let alone a way to upgrade humans well beyond current peak intelligence. Even if we had actual prototypes right now that reliably worked for (say) significantly upgrading chimpanzees, it would likely take 15 years just to get through the large amount of adaptations, ethical reviews, and studies to get them adequately tested on humans. But we don’t, and there aren’t even plausible conceptual models yet that will lead to prototypes.
We’re still working our way through setting up the foundations for gathering the data that we need to start developing such models. That said, it is possible that we may get some radical breakthroughs in both technology and medical knowledge very quickly, as well as radical restructuring of risk approaches in medical establishments.
In such a case I could imagine such upgrades in as short as 30 years. However, I expect almost all worlds in which we get such radical changes so quickly are ones in which we already developed artificial superintelligence and it didn’t kill us.
Specifically, I heard we can’t increase intelligence or engineer a desirable trait via somatic gene editing, which limits a lot of genetic engineering’s usefulness.