I have in fact completely given up on giving probability estimates more extreme than +/-40 decibels, or 50-60 in some extreme (and borderline trivial) cases. I haven’t actually adjusted planning to compensate for the possible loss of fundamental assumptions, though, so I may be doing it wrong… On the gripping hand, however, most of the probability mass in the remaining options tends to be impossible to plan for anyway.
Voted up for excellent points all around.
I have in fact completely given up on giving probability estimates more extreme than +/-40 decibels, or 50-60 in some extreme (and borderline trivial) cases. I haven’t actually adjusted planning to compensate for the possible loss of fundamental assumptions, though, so I may be doing it wrong… On the gripping hand, however, most of the probability mass in the remaining options tends to be impossible to plan for anyway.