Deep Research … will rapidly improve—when GPT-4.5 arrives soon and is integrated into the underlying reasoning model
Deep Research is based on o3, but it’s unclear if o3 is based on GPT-4o or GPT-4.5. Knowledge cutoff for GPT-4.5 is Oct 2023, the announcement about training the next frontier model was in May 2024, so it plausibly finished pretraining by Sep-Oct 2024, in time to use as a foundation for o3.
It might still rapidly improve even if based on GPT-4.5 if RL training is scalable, but that also remains unknown, the reasoning models so far don’t come with scaling laws for RL training, it’s plausible that this is bottlenecked on manual construction of verifiable tasks, which can’t be scaled 1000x.
Deep Research is based on o3, but it’s unclear if o3 is based on GPT-4o or GPT-4.5. Knowledge cutoff for GPT-4.5 is Oct 2023, the announcement about training the next frontier model was in May 2024, so it plausibly finished pretraining by Sep-Oct 2024, in time to use as a foundation for o3.
It might still rapidly improve even if based on GPT-4.5 if RL training is scalable, but that also remains unknown, the reasoning models so far don’t come with scaling laws for RL training, it’s plausible that this is bottlenecked on manual construction of verifiable tasks, which can’t be scaled 1000x.