I think the crux vs papers like Jones and Tonetti (2026) is whether AI R&D is much easier to automate than tasks in the general economy. From a skim, they include AI increasing idea production but not specifically work at AI labs.
As for the shape of the automation curve, agree it’s very important. I’d be interested in any ideas on how to measure it.
I think the crux vs papers like Jones and Tonetti (2026) is whether AI R&D is much easier to automate than tasks in the general economy. From a skim, they include AI increasing idea production but not specifically work at AI labs.
As for the shape of the automation curve, agree it’s very important. I’d be interested in any ideas on how to measure it.