I tend to think of the market as a random walk during day trading, largely driven by viral memetic fashion trends on the scale of weeks to months, and then often only “weighing” effectively on the scale of months to years.
Is this meant to be in contrast to what a believer in the EMH would think? It sounds pretty similar to me.
Is your point just that the information that the market is pricing in on short timescales more about the demand to hold various assets than new fundamental information about a company? I suppose if you think of the EMH as saying that the market only moves on fundamentals then that would be a contrast. But I guess I tend to think of the EMH as saying that all the fundamentals are priced in. Not that nothing else is priced in.
Is this meant to be in contrast to what a believer in the EMH would think? It sounds pretty similar to me.
Is your point just that the information that the market is pricing in on short timescales more about the demand to hold various assets than new fundamental information about a company? I suppose if you think of the EMH as saying that the market only moves on fundamentals then that would be a contrast. But I guess I tend to think of the EMH as saying that all the fundamentals are priced in. Not that nothing else is priced in.