As I understand it, in your presentation the doomsday argument corresponds to some of the human-marbles being coloured red, and then asking the first marble in the line what the probability that he was coloured red is: to me the problem appears to be directing questions at samples from probability spaces. I’m now perilously close to just giving a careless analysis of the doomsday argument though.
I think you may have attached the phrase “second drawing” to a useful concept, but it’s not entirely clear what that is. If you can find a lucid explanation, then we might learn something.
As I understand it, in your presentation the doomsday argument corresponds to some of the human-marbles being coloured red, and then asking the first marble in the line what the probability that he was coloured red is: to me the problem appears to be directing questions at samples from probability spaces. I’m now perilously close to just giving a careless analysis of the doomsday argument though.
I think you may have attached the phrase “second drawing” to a useful concept, but it’s not entirely clear what that is. If you can find a lucid explanation, then we might learn something.