There is a 100% chance that I am who I am. There is a 100% chance that I’m Daniel Carrier, given that I’m Daniel Carrier. There is a vanishingly small probability that I’m Daniel Carrier, and a similar probability that I’m Elizer Yudkowsky.
I know that I’m Daniel Carrier, but I can still calculate the probability of it without using as a given. This seems pretty pointless, but it can actually be quite useful. Since P(A|B)P(B) = P(B|A)P(A), if I know the relative likelihoods of me being Daniel Carrier and the universe ending next Tuesday, I can go from P(I am Daniel Carrier | The universe will end next Tuesday) to P(The universe will end next Tuesday | I am Daniel Carrier).
There is a 100% chance that I am who I am. There is a 100% chance that I’m Daniel Carrier, given that I’m Daniel Carrier. There is a vanishingly small probability that I’m Daniel Carrier, and a similar probability that I’m Elizer Yudkowsky.
I know that I’m Daniel Carrier, but I can still calculate the probability of it without using as a given. This seems pretty pointless, but it can actually be quite useful. Since P(A|B)P(B) = P(B|A)P(A), if I know the relative likelihoods of me being Daniel Carrier and the universe ending next Tuesday, I can go from P(I am Daniel Carrier | The universe will end next Tuesday) to P(The universe will end next Tuesday | I am Daniel Carrier).