Schelling’s specific point actually feels relevant to me and a blindspot among (at least some) rationalists or EAs when they talk about “conflict” vs “mistake” theory. I’ve recently thought about the “conflict vs mistake theory” framing some more, and think it misses out a lot of the learnings that are standard in, eg, negotiation classes or bargaining theory, or international relations/game theory writ large.
I think a lot of the time a better position is something roughly like: “I have my interests and intend to pursue mine own interests to the best of my ability. I respect you as an agent with your interests and willing to pursue yours. Sometimes our interests come into conflict, and we take actions detrimental to each other. However, it is implausible that our interests are directly opposed, and there are often plausible gains from trade.”
A plausible example of mistake theory inhibiting gains from trade is when (supposedly) Obama often tried to lecture Republican lawmakers about their mistakes, instead of taking their interests as a given and tried to negotiate more.
Thanks, this is helpful.
Schelling’s specific point actually feels relevant to me and a blindspot among (at least some) rationalists or EAs when they talk about “conflict” vs “mistake” theory. I’ve recently thought about the “conflict vs mistake theory” framing some more, and think it misses out a lot of the learnings that are standard in, eg, negotiation classes or bargaining theory, or international relations/game theory writ large.
I think a lot of the time a better position is something roughly like: “I have my interests and intend to pursue mine own interests to the best of my ability. I respect you as an agent with your interests and willing to pursue yours. Sometimes our interests come into conflict, and we take actions detrimental to each other. However, it is implausible that our interests are directly opposed, and there are often plausible gains from trade.”
A plausible example of mistake theory inhibiting gains from trade is when (supposedly) Obama often tried to lecture Republican lawmakers about their mistakes, instead of taking their interests as a given and tried to negotiate more.
Of course, conflict theory can inhibit gains from trade if it prevents people from coming to the negotiation table, or just not notice that bargaining is almost always a better option than war.