For anyone who thinks that cryonics is Pascal’s mugging, this thought experiment amounts to “if you don’t want to accept Pascal’s mugging, how about I construct an opposite Pascal’s mugging. I gotcha now—if you reject the first Pascal’s mugging, you have to accept this one!” Cryonics is a Pascal’s mugging with a small chance of a large benefit and a large chance of a smaller loss. This version is a small chance of a large harm and a large chance of a smaller benefit.
Pascal’s mugging is a bad deal either way. I won’t accept a very small X in this version merely because I think that the chance of success of cryonics is small, even if the calculation works out that way—the proper response to Pascal’s mugging is to not calculate.
For anyone who thinks that cryonics is Pascal’s mugging, this thought experiment amounts to “if you don’t want to accept Pascal’s mugging, how about I construct an opposite Pascal’s mugging. I gotcha now—if you reject the first Pascal’s mugging, you have to accept this one!” Cryonics is a Pascal’s mugging with a small chance of a large benefit and a large chance of a smaller loss. This version is a small chance of a large harm and a large chance of a smaller benefit.
Pascal’s mugging is a bad deal either way. I won’t accept a very small X in this version merely because I think that the chance of success of cryonics is small, even if the calculation works out that way—the proper response to Pascal’s mugging is to not calculate.